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Kabul Attack Raises Doubts about Peace Process, Security Transition

Taliban insurgents yesterday unleashed a highly sophisticated assault on the heart of Kabul. The bloody siege lasted 20 hours.

The attacks started at about 1:30 pm at Abdul Haq Square. Insurgents entered a half-constructed building - thought to be a new Marriott Hotel - from where they launched a massive attack on the US Embassy and Isaf's headquarters.

The embassy and Isaf compounds lie within the supposedly impenetrable "ring of steel" security zone.

As the fighting continued downtown, two suicide bombers in the Demazang area of Kabul's outskirts targeted the headquarters of the Border Police at about 3:30 pm, killing two policemen.

A third suicide bomber detonated his explosives near a high school, killing one police officer and injuring many bystanders. In total, eight people, including four Afghan policemen, were killed and another 17 people were injured. Those numbers may mount in coming days.

A Taliban spokesman confirmed that the US Embassy, Nato's Isaf headquarters and the Afghan National Directorate of Security were their targets.

The September 13 assault has sent a strong message to the political and military establishments in Kabul and Washington that the Taliban are in fact not the ones losing the war.

The insurgents once again displayed their perseverance and ruthless dedication to achieving their cause and, in doing so, they have discredited the peace and reconciliation process, and have illustrated the ineffectiveness of the strategy of security transition.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid immediately issued a statement on the organisation's website, calling the attacks a success. He called on all media outlets to "take a closer look at what has been going on in Kabul through much of the day and observe the journalist code of ethics and state what is true." Mujahid called attention to the old rhetoric of labelling every attack as "shameful and cowardly" as being far from the truth and "one-sided."

Ultimately, one must concede that this particular attack was not a cowardly act. With an 82mm mortar, heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, AK-47 assault rifles and suicide vests, this was a highly complex and intricate attack which targeted what was supposedly the securest area in all of Afghanistan. The only cowardly thing would be the Afghan government's persistence in calling on the Taliban to renounce violence and join the peace process while scores of Afghan civilians are killed at their hands.

This year, insurgents seeking to demonstrate their opposition to the peace process have killed many Afghan officials, including Ahmad Wali Karzai, the half brother of President Hamid Karzai and the chief of Kandahar's provincial council.

The rise in targeted assassinations of Afghan officials and the Taliban's summer offensive, which targeted members of the High Peace Council responsible for negotiating the peace process, has made it obvious that the Afghan government is trying to reconcile with the irreconcilable.

How many more civilians and members of the security forces will have to lose their lives before the Afghan political establishment realises its reconciliation strategy is faltering and shows no sign of progress?

Coincidently, yesterday's attack comes just as the US gave its seal of approval for a Taliban political office in Qatar. The Taliban once again refused any such deal and continue to regard such a peace deal as nothing more than propaganda.

In terms of security transition, by shattering the "ring of steel" which is made up of approximately 25 police check posts circling Kabul's diplomatic and government enclave, the Taliban have shown that no city or province is impenetrable to their fighters.

Keeping this in mind, it must be remembered that Kabul city is one of the seven areas in which responsibility for security was transferred from NATO to Afghan security forces in July. The other areas were Panjsher and Bamiyan provinces, and the cities of Herat, Lashkar Gah, Mazar-e-Sharif and Mehtarlam. Each of those places witnessed a series of attacks either right before transition or immediately after, which demonstrated the inability of the Afghan security forces to cope without the assistance of international forces.

To Afghan analysts, it seems that the process of transition has been carried out at a juncture where insurgents, and not the international community, stand at a position of strength.

In the past nine months, Afghanistan has witnessed a 15 per cent increase in civilian casualties compared to the same period a year ago. And while southern Afghanistan remains volatile, security in northern Afghanistan, which had been considered safer and more stable, has deteriorated.

The assault at the heart of Kabul sent ripples throughout the country and region, and highlighted the failings of the policies and strategies currently in place in Afghanistan. For example, on the same day as the attacks, the US Senate approved a $1.6 billion cut in funding for building the capacity of Afghan security forces, which was "part of a significant reduction in outlays for training and equipping Afghan army and police in the coming years."

Almost two years into the peace process, with transition of security transition under way and billions of dollars spent, still fewer than 1,500 insurgents have reintegrated, and the Afghan army and police remain ill equipped.

And, holding little or no confidence in the Afghan government's ability to bring peace and stability to their country, the local population is predicting that the worst is yet to come.

Mariam Safi is a political analyst in Kabul, Afghanistan.

Kabul Attack Raises Doubts about Peace Process, Security Transition

Taliban insurgents yesterday unleashed a highly sophisticated assault on the heart of Kabul. The blo

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Taliban insurgents yesterday unleashed a highly sophisticated assault on the heart of Kabul. The bloody siege lasted 20 hours.

The attacks started at about 1:30 pm at Abdul Haq Square. Insurgents entered a half-constructed building - thought to be a new Marriott Hotel - from where they launched a massive attack on the US Embassy and Isaf's headquarters.

The embassy and Isaf compounds lie within the supposedly impenetrable "ring of steel" security zone.

As the fighting continued downtown, two suicide bombers in the Demazang area of Kabul's outskirts targeted the headquarters of the Border Police at about 3:30 pm, killing two policemen.

A third suicide bomber detonated his explosives near a high school, killing one police officer and injuring many bystanders. In total, eight people, including four Afghan policemen, were killed and another 17 people were injured. Those numbers may mount in coming days.

A Taliban spokesman confirmed that the US Embassy, Nato's Isaf headquarters and the Afghan National Directorate of Security were their targets.

The September 13 assault has sent a strong message to the political and military establishments in Kabul and Washington that the Taliban are in fact not the ones losing the war.

The insurgents once again displayed their perseverance and ruthless dedication to achieving their cause and, in doing so, they have discredited the peace and reconciliation process, and have illustrated the ineffectiveness of the strategy of security transition.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid immediately issued a statement on the organisation's website, calling the attacks a success. He called on all media outlets to "take a closer look at what has been going on in Kabul through much of the day and observe the journalist code of ethics and state what is true." Mujahid called attention to the old rhetoric of labelling every attack as "shameful and cowardly" as being far from the truth and "one-sided."

Ultimately, one must concede that this particular attack was not a cowardly act. With an 82mm mortar, heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, AK-47 assault rifles and suicide vests, this was a highly complex and intricate attack which targeted what was supposedly the securest area in all of Afghanistan. The only cowardly thing would be the Afghan government's persistence in calling on the Taliban to renounce violence and join the peace process while scores of Afghan civilians are killed at their hands.

This year, insurgents seeking to demonstrate their opposition to the peace process have killed many Afghan officials, including Ahmad Wali Karzai, the half brother of President Hamid Karzai and the chief of Kandahar's provincial council.

The rise in targeted assassinations of Afghan officials and the Taliban's summer offensive, which targeted members of the High Peace Council responsible for negotiating the peace process, has made it obvious that the Afghan government is trying to reconcile with the irreconcilable.

How many more civilians and members of the security forces will have to lose their lives before the Afghan political establishment realises its reconciliation strategy is faltering and shows no sign of progress?

Coincidently, yesterday's attack comes just as the US gave its seal of approval for a Taliban political office in Qatar. The Taliban once again refused any such deal and continue to regard such a peace deal as nothing more than propaganda.

In terms of security transition, by shattering the "ring of steel" which is made up of approximately 25 police check posts circling Kabul's diplomatic and government enclave, the Taliban have shown that no city or province is impenetrable to their fighters.

Keeping this in mind, it must be remembered that Kabul city is one of the seven areas in which responsibility for security was transferred from NATO to Afghan security forces in July. The other areas were Panjsher and Bamiyan provinces, and the cities of Herat, Lashkar Gah, Mazar-e-Sharif and Mehtarlam. Each of those places witnessed a series of attacks either right before transition or immediately after, which demonstrated the inability of the Afghan security forces to cope without the assistance of international forces.

To Afghan analysts, it seems that the process of transition has been carried out at a juncture where insurgents, and not the international community, stand at a position of strength.

In the past nine months, Afghanistan has witnessed a 15 per cent increase in civilian casualties compared to the same period a year ago. And while southern Afghanistan remains volatile, security in northern Afghanistan, which had been considered safer and more stable, has deteriorated.

The assault at the heart of Kabul sent ripples throughout the country and region, and highlighted the failings of the policies and strategies currently in place in Afghanistan. For example, on the same day as the attacks, the US Senate approved a $1.6 billion cut in funding for building the capacity of Afghan security forces, which was "part of a significant reduction in outlays for training and equipping Afghan army and police in the coming years."

Almost two years into the peace process, with transition of security transition under way and billions of dollars spent, still fewer than 1,500 insurgents have reintegrated, and the Afghan army and police remain ill equipped.

And, holding little or no confidence in the Afghan government's ability to bring peace and stability to their country, the local population is predicting that the worst is yet to come.

Mariam Safi is a political analyst in Kabul, Afghanistan.

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