After the hurried withdrawal of American troops, the new Afghanistan government has taken proactive steps in diplomacy. Even though facing challenges on international recognition, some countries have already sent their ambassadors to Kabul. China is one of them. 

What is the prospect of Afghanistan-China relations in the near future? Here is a brief analysis. China has insisted on upholding the principle of non-interference with internal affairs of other countries. I think this is essential. 

The Kabul government has just consolidated the administration in the country but is still under geopolitical pressure from some Western countries. With the principle of non-interference, I think Afghanistan officials and people feel more relaxed and secure for engagement with China. 

It can pave a psychological foundation for further engagement. It is over ten years since China launched the One Belt One Road Initiative (BRI).

This grand geoeconomic strategy is a deeper version of reform for China. The Beijing government sees this strategy as a grand design for China’s further economic development. The geographical focus of BRI is Eurasia so that Afghanistan can be a super connector and corridor for China’s BRI across the region. I think Afghanistan can attract more investment and cooperation from China on projects related to connection such as infrastructure and communication. The benefits derived are reciprocal and mutual. 

Economic development also requires some software such as personnel, laws and all types of systems. I think China’s experience is valuable as reference for Afghanistan. In the last century, China turned from nothing to gradual prosperity with its own efforts without aid from Soviet Union and the United States. I trust that Afghan people can also succeed in the same way with persistence and courage.

Apart from economy, security and geopolitics may affect the relation between the two nations. There are several issues. Firstly, safety of personnel. The recent killing of Chinese engineers in Pakistan alarms Chinese authorities. Secondly, Beijing is much concerned about stability in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Kabul needs to keep track of the situation by intelligence and other means.

I believe that no one can guarantee absolute safety and security. However, if the Kabul government has taken prompt and preventive measures, the Chinese side will understand the complex situation so that a good relationship can be maintained. Setting up a joint cooperation mechanism on security may help. 

For geopolitics, it is relatively uncertain and unpredictable. The new government has adopted a neutral and non-alliance policy, more akin to China’s position.

Nevertheless, China has tension with others including the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. Afghanistan is open to friendly engagement with all nations. It is inevitable for the Kabul government to make tough decisions in case of China’s tensions with other countries. Even though China may be a strategic economic partner in the coming future, skillful diplomacy is necessary for coping with crisis and uncertainties for Afghan statesmen. 

I view that Japan and Russia will be great competitors for China in the region, especially after the Ukraine conflict is ended. How to take a pragmatic balance will be a top task for Kabul officials and diplomats.

- Prof. Dr. Hei Sing Tso is an expert in Traditional Chinese Stratagem and geopolitical analysis. He is the President and Research Professor at Guiguzi Stratagem Learning, a professional institute for learning and research in stratagem and geopolitics.