(Reuters) - Nallathambi Mahendran walked through his four acres of emerald green paddy fields in northern Sri Lanka's Kilinochchi district, indicating the height the plants should have reached by now. They were several feet short.
The standing paddy crop across most of this major rice growing belt is stunted for the second successive season because of the lack of fertiliser, according to farmers, a union leader and local government officials.
In 10,900 hectares of land under cultivation in Kilinochchi, the average yield is likely to hit 2.3 metric tonnes per hectare, according to government estimates seen by Reuters.
In previous years, paddy fields in the area delivered around 4.5 tonnes per hectare, according to a local government official who asked not to be named because he was not authorised to speak to media.
Across rice farms in this Indian Ocean island, the bleak picture is emerging that the summer harvest could be as low as half that of previous years, according to experts.
As Sri Lanka's staple food, it points to further pressure on a country already struggling with its worst economic crisis in modern times, including runaway inflation and growing levels of malnutrition.
The shortage of fertiliser is not the only problem for farmers. The country has hardly any currency reserves to import adequate fuel, so farm machinery and trucks to transport rice to markets are in short supply. Some farmers say their crops are not worth harvesting.
Compounding the economic misery, the stunted crop means the island will have to use precious currency reserves, a credit line from India as well as foreign aid to import hundreds of thousands of tonnes of rice.
Across the country, paddy production during the ongoing "Yala" or summer farming season could be half the average 2 million tonnes in previous years, said Buddhi Marambe, a professor of crop science at Sri Lanka's Peradeniya University.
"This is mainly because of the absence of fertiliser during the vegetative growth stages of the crops," Marambe said. "Urea was made available with lots of effort but was too late for many areas."
Sri Lanka has been self-suficient in rice for decades, but went to international markets last year to buy 149,000 tonnes of the grain after the fertiliser shortage first hit production. In 2022, the country has already contracted to import 424,000 tonnes.
More imports may be needed to stave off food shortages in the first two months of 2023, or until the "Maha" crop that is planted in September is harvested, Marambe said.
A committee appointed by the Ministry of Agriculture is currently evaluating the need for additional imports, a ministry official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Government spokespersons did not respond to requests for comment on the food situation and likely imports.
Rice is the staple food of the country's 22 million people and its biggest crop. According to government data, 2 million people in the country are rice farmers out of 8.1 million people engaged in fishing and agriculture in the largely rural economy.